Japan, July 2025: Weakened LDP coalition continues in minority

The 20 July Upper House election in Japan has weakened the minority coalition, and a change of government have been considered as highly likely to happen. Big changes on the nation's political landscape have been prognosed by many.

High engagement and voter turnout

One of the notable aspects of this election was the voter turnout, which stood at a remarkable percentage compared to past elections. High voter engagement often indicates a robust democratic process, as citizens actively participate in shaping their government. This shift could signal a change in how political parties approach their campaign strategies moving forward, as engaging with an active electorate becomes crucial.

Weak coalition continues, challenged by conservatives and "Japanese first"

On July 21, the LDP Prime Minister have said that he aims to continue, even though his coalition is weakened after the election.

The electoral results have highlighted the necessity for political parties to reassess their strategies in governance and public engagement. The ruling coalition's performance, in particular, has stirred discussions concerning its policies and how they resonate with the populace.

As the opposition seem to have gained ground, it is clear that they are capitalizing on areas where the government has faced criticism. This evolving political environment will inevitably prompt a recalibration of priorities among lawmakers as they strive to meet the expectations of their constituents.

With weakened support, it will take more time for the minority coalition to continue their politics. The Upper House election results will influence legislative processes significantly. The balance of power shifts as new members take their seats, and the composition of the House may hinder or facilitate the passage of key pieces of legislation. The ruling party will need to navigate this landscape carefully, potentially seeking alliances with smaller parties to ensure a stable governance model.

While the Prime Minister might continue, there is a high probably that the reduced support from Japanese voters will slow down the implementation of LDP politics.

The outcome of the Upper House election in Japan serve as a mirror reflecting broader societal trends and demands. As political actors analyze these results, it is imperative that they recognize the necessity for responsive governance that aligns with the will of the people. The subsequent months will be critical for all parties involved as they strive to understand and adapt to this newly defined political reality.

The position of the LDP is now more fragile than before the election, with 39 opposed to earlier 52 representatives.

The political future of Japan remains challenged. After the July 20 election the main opposition party, the conservative CPC keeps its 22 representatives. The most remarkable opponent is perhaps the newest challenger in mainstream politics, the far right Sanseito party with its focus on "Japanese first" and growing sceptisism towards foreigners. Sanseito jumps from 1 to 14 representatives, and has with this emerged as a serious oppositional force in Japan.

Until further, a weakened minority continues to control the Prime Minister position.

But, perhaps only until the next election.

Read more:

Japan's shaky government loses upper house control

https://www.reuters.com/world/japans-shaky-government-loses-upper-house-control-2025-07-21/

Japan's PM vows to stay on despite bruising election loss

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8xvn90yr8go

Japan ruling bloc loses majority in Upper House after election drubbing

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/07/21/japan/politics/japan-upper-house-election-results/