August 2025 - Latest polls - Bolivia’s Presidential Race: Fragmented Field Heading to Likely Runoff

August 2025 - Bolivia’s Presidential Race: Fragmented Field Heading to Likely Runoff

August 16, 2025 - With just hours before polls open on August 17, Bolivia’s presidential election remains one of the most unpredictable in the country’s recent democratic history. Nine candidates are competing for the presidency in a race where no frontrunner has emerged and economic crisis dominates voter concerns.

Pre-Election Polling Landscape

The latest polling data reveals an extraordinarily fragmented electorate, with undecided voters representing the largest single group. This fragmentation virtually guarantees that no candidate will achieve the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff election scheduled for October 19, 2025.

Leading Candidates

Samuel Doria Medina - Unity Alliance (21.76%)

The center-right businessman and veteran politician leads the pack with just over one-fifth of voting intention. Medina, who has run for president multiple times previously, is positioning himself as the experienced alternative to the fractured MAS party. His campaign focuses heavily on economic recovery and institutional reform.

Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga - Liberty Alliance (16.6%)

The conservative former president (2001-2002) sits in second place, capitalizing on voter nostalgia for previous periods of economic stability. Quiroga’s campaign emphasizes his international experience and promises to restore Bolivia’s relationships with Western partners while addressing the current economic crisis.

Andrónico Rodríguez - MAS Faction (13.7%)

Leading one faction of the split Movement for Socialism party, Rodríguez represents the continuation of the Evo Morales political line. Despite the party’s internal divisions, he maintains a significant base among rural and indigenous voters who remain loyal to MAS’s socialist ideology.

Fragmented Opposition

The remaining six candidates each poll in single digits, but their collective presence demonstrates the complete breakdown of traditional Bolivian political coalitions. This includes:

• Eva Copa - Former interim Senate president representing indigenous women’s political advancement

• Vicente Cuéllar - Military veteran appealing to law-and-order voters

• Luis Fernando Camacho - Far-right candidate with a strong regional base in Santa Cruz

• Carlos Mesa - Veteran politician and former president seeking a comeback

• Chi Hyun Chung - Businessman of Korean descent representing Bolivia’s growing Asian community

• Luciano Machado - Labor union leader competing for the traditional left vote

The Undecided Factor

Perhaps most significantly, undecided voters constitute the largest segment of the electorate. This unprecedented level of voter uncertainty reflects deep dissatisfaction with traditional political options amid Bolivia’s worst economic crisis in decades. Record inflation and shortages of basic goods have left many Bolivians questioning all established political alternatives.

Political analysts suggest this uncertainty could lead to significant last-minute shifts in voting patterns, making election night results particularly unpredictable.

Path to Victory

With current polling showing no candidate approaching the 50% threshold required for first-round victory, the real competition is for the top two positions that would advance to October’s runoff. Medina’s slight lead positions him favorably, but the margin is well within polling errors, and the large undecided vote could dramatically alter the landscape.

The fragmented nature of the race means that successful coalition-building and vote mobilization in the final hours could prove decisive. Each campaign is focusing intensively on turning out their base while appealing to the substantial undecided segment.

Economic Crisis Impact

All candidates are campaigning heavily on economic recovery themes, with voters citing inflation, unemployment, and basic goods shortages as their primary concerns. The economic crisis has fundamentally reshaped Bolivian politics, breaking traditional party loyalties and creating space for new political alternatives.